Sports
Betting on the Champions League on Polymarket (2026-27)
Barcelona, PSG, Arsenal, Bayern… Nearly $62 million has already been traded on Polymarket on who will win the 2026-27 Champions League. Here is what these markets say about the favourites, how to read them, and the traps to avoid before matchday 4 on November 3 and 4.
The favourites according to Polymarket
On the "2027 winner" market, each club has its own price, which reads as a probability. As of October 27, 2026:
| Club | Price (probability) | Equivalent decimal odds, before fees |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona | 0.22 (22%) | 4.55 |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 0.175 (17.5%) | 5.71 |
| Arsenal | 0.135 (13.5%) | 7.41 |
| Bayern Munich | 0.135 (13.5%) | 7.41 |
| Real Madrid | 0.125 (12.5%) | 8.00 |
| Manchester City | 0.075 (7.5%) | 13.33 |
Prices of the Polymarket market "UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion" taken on October 27, 2026; they move continuously with results and injuries.
The market gives Barcelona about a one-in-five chance, and no club is above 25%. After three matchdays, the competition is wide open.
The available markets
- The overall winner: the most followed market, settled after the final.
- The league-phase winner: the club that finishes top of the 36-team table (PSG and Real Madrid lead the prices at the end of October, at around 32% and 28%).
- Qualifiers: top 8, round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals.
- Top scorer: Harry Kane (about 22%), Kylian Mbappé (20%) and Erling Haaland (17%) lead at the end of October.
- Every game: either team to win, the draw, number of goals, exact score. These markets open a few days before kick-off.
The displayed-price trap
On an active market, the gap between buy and sell prices is a cent or two: Barcelona can be bought at 0.23 and sold at 0.21. On a thin market, the displayed price means nothing. At the end of October, on the top-scorer market, Antoine Semenyo was shown at 13%, but the best buy price was 0.265… and the best sell price 0.002.
The rule: always look at the price you can actually buy at, and avoid markets with a wide gap. Details in our guide to Polymarket odds.
What the fees cost
On football markets, Polymarket charges fees to whoever takes an existing order, for example by buying right away at the market price: on the winner market, 3% × (1 − price) of the amount, about 2.3% for a share bought at 0.23. The bot adds 2%.
Example: $10 on Barcelona bought at 0.23 gives about 41.6 shares after fees, so $41.60 if Barça wins the final: real odds of about 4.16, against 4.35 displayed. All fees are explained in our fees guide.
The 2026-27 calendar
- Matchday 4: Tuesday 3 and Wednesday 4 November 2026;
- Matchday 5: Tuesday 24 and Wednesday 25 November 2026;
- Matchday 6: Tuesday 8 and Wednesday 9 December 2026;
- Matchday 7: Tuesday 19 and Wednesday 20 January 2027;
- Matchday 8, the last of the league phase: Wednesday 27 January 2027;
- Final: Saturday 5 June 2027, at the Estadio Metropolitano in Madrid.
Calendar published by UEFA, subject to change.
Following the Champions League from Telegram
In the PolyCopy bot, every game shows up in the sports section about 48 hours before kick-off, with the live score during the game. You can bet before or during the game, sell at any time, or combine several games into a parlay. Live games are also on our live sports page. To fund your wallet, follow our deposit guide.
Polymarket's international platform is restricted in several countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Australia: check the rules where you live before betting. Only stake what you can afford to lose.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite to win the 2026-27 Champions League?
As of October 27, 2026, FC Barcelona, at 22% on Polymarket, ahead of PSG (17.5%), Arsenal and Bayern Munich (13.5% each) and Real Madrid (12.5%). These probabilities change continuously.
Where and when is the 2027 final?
At the Estadio Metropolitano in Madrid, on Saturday 5 June 2027, according to the calendar published by UEFA.
Can I bet on a game while it is live?
Yes. During the game, prices move continuously and you can buy or sell your shares as long as the market is open.