Which Polymarket Traders to Copy? Our 6-Point Method

The leaderboard trap

A leaderboard sorts players by total profit. But the largest profits often come from bots earning a small percentage on huge volumes, from lucky shots on bets priced at a few cents, or from one excellent month. None of these profiles makes a copier money.

The 6 criteria

1. Their picks win at equal stakes

We recompute their results as if every bet had the same stake. If the trader only wins thanks to their big bets (their sizing), a fixed-stake copier won't benefit.

2. They bet before the event

A trader who buys hours or days before the outcome can be copied a few seconds later without the price moving. A trader who bets during a game, when prices change with every play, cannot.

3. The price doesn't jump after they buy

We measure the price one minute after each purchase. On small markets it sometimes rises by 10 to 20%: the copier then pays much more than the trader did.

4. Their profits don't rest on two or three bets

We remove their 5 best bets: if they turn into a loser, it is a lottery, not a method.

5. They are consistent

Several bets a week, every week: a trader who disappears for three weeks gives you nothing to copy.

6. It holds over 12 months

We split the year into 4 quarters. A trader who is excellent over 3 months can be break-even over the year: that is the window mirage, the most common trap.

What it gives in practice

In October 2026 we analysed the active bettors of more than 10,000 Polymarket markets (sports, politics, geopolitics, crypto, culture) and 13,000 wallets from the official leaderboards. The result:

• the vast majority lose at equal stakes, or earn less than a copier's costs;
• most of the famous "big winners" are bots (thousands of orders a day) or are inactive;
• outside sports, many spectacular profits come from bets under 10 cents, on markets where the price jumps after the purchase;
• only a handful pass all six criteria over 12 months.

Those are the ones we present on our Verified traders page, with their results quarter by quarter. The month's biggest winners are analysed in our monthly ranking.

Profiles to avoid

• The high-frequency bot: hundreds of markets a day, a 1 to 3% margin.
• The market maker: buys both sides and earns the spread.
• The favourite sweeper: buys at 0.95 or more to earn a few cents; a single loss wipes out months.
• The lottery player: bets at 2 cents, two huge wins, dozens of losses.
• The brand-new account: less than three months of history, impossible to judge.