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What Is Polymarket? Prediction Markets Explained
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market: millions of people buy and sell shares on the outcome of real events, from sports to politics. Here is how it works, without jargon.
A market where you buy shares in an event
In a prediction market, each question has outcomes: "Yes" or "No", or several candidates. You buy shares in the outcome you think will win. When the market settles, every winning share is worth $1 and every losing share $0.
Polymarket launched in 2020. It runs on the Polygon blockchain, and bets are made in digital dollars (the USDC stablecoin, converted on Polymarket into its own betting currency).
A share's price is a probability
A "Yes" share trading at $0.62 means participants put the event's probability at about 62%. If you buy at 0.62 and the event happens, you get $1 per share: a $0.38 gain per share. If it doesn't, you lose your stake.
No bookmaker sets the price: it comes from supply and demand between players, in an order book. It's all explained in our guide to Polymarket odds.
How a market is settled
Every market has written rules: what counts, the official source, the deadline. Most markets are settled through an oracle (UMA): someone proposes the outcome, which becomes final if nobody disputes it within the set period. Sports markets usually settle within hours of the game.
Always read the rules before buying: on some markets, a detail of wording changes everything.
What can you bet on?
- Sports: match winners, number of goals, handicaps, competitions.
- Politics: elections, primaries, nominations, votes in parliament.
- Geopolitics: ceasefires, negotiations, diplomatic meetings.
- Economy and crypto: interest rates, inflation, the price of Bitcoin.
- Culture: awards, box office, music charts.
- Mentions: what a public figure will say in a speech (see mention markets).
Polymarket vs a sportsbook
- No odds imposed by a house: the price comes from other players, not from a bookmaker keeping a margin on every outcome.
- You can sell before the end: if the price rises, you can lock in your gain without waiting for the result.
- Variable fees: zero on many markets, higher on sports (see fees).
- Everything is public: every position is visible, which makes copy trading possible.
The full comparison (margin, player protection, legality) is in Polymarket vs a sportsbook: what really changes.
Risks and availability
A prediction market is still a bet: you can lose your whole stake. Prices can move very fast, and a thin market can make selling difficult. Only stake what you can afford to lose.
Polymarket's international platform is restricted in several countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Australia and Singapore. Polymarket runs a separate, CFTC-regulated exchange for US residents. Check the rules where you live.
Frequently asked questions
Is Polymarket a betting site?
It is a prediction market: you buy shares in the outcome of an event, at a price set by other participants. Several regulators treat it as gambling, and access is restricted in a number of countries.
Can I sell a position before the end?
Yes. As long as the market is open, you can sell your shares at the current price, to lock in a gain or cut a loss.
What is a share worth at the end?
$1 if the outcome you bought happens, $0 otherwise. Your gain is the difference between $1 and the price you paid.